A Day at the Track!
Well you can rest assured folks that today millions will be tuned into that legendary, quickest sporting event in the world. And even more millions will be exchanging hands in the various gambling outlets across the country and in the online holdings of the Caribbean. People will be pulling out all stops today for a sport that hardly anyone gives recognition to for the other 364 days of the year unless you count the two other upcoming Saturday’s of the Belmont and Breeders Cup in a few weeks. But those hardly compare to the spectacle that is dundundunaa, “The Kentucky Derby.“
Click here to skip to Derby Video Replay!Before those red velvety clad trumpeters make their passage to the center track and before the rustling stalls of anxious thoroughbreds leap forth from the opening gates, the anticipation of the 6:24pm gun shot start will be a momentous occasion for many. So to revel in the mood of the ornate, antebellum dresses, seersucker suits, fedora and lady sun hats clad by both the affluent equestrian insiders as well as the rambunctious young partiers, here's a peak at what’s in store for 2013. So as the mint juleps start to overflow and the cocktail glasses permeate that sweet smell, lets get a quick history. This year marks the 139th running of the race which got started in 1867 on the track known as Churchill Downs.
Well enough history, so what’s to be seen in this less than two minute, one and a quarter mile test of equestrian stamina?
Today, the all on odds favorite is the strangely named, four consecutive winning horse known as ‘Orb.’ His most recent impressive victory was at the Florida Derby where he beat out another of this year’s Derby contenders ‘ItsMyLuckyDay’ by about a three lengths difference. The two horses are standing at 7-2 and 15-1 odds respectively. If your someone who feels confident going for the favorite then Orb is the horse to wager on but history has shown that the favorite is seldom likely to win. And in this year’s large field of 19 entries it might be wise to consider putting your money with some of the other notable contenders.
The horse trainer Todd Pletcher is one of the best in the business and he has four horses in the running this year. Don’t be surprised if you see at least one of them in a top position finish. Two off the bat that are worthy of eliminating as the best of the pack though are 'Palace Malice' and 'Charming Kitten' both at 20-1 odds. These two raced side by side at the recent Blue Grass Keene Derby and were overtaken by an impressive last to first finish by 'Java’s War' who had gotten out with a bad start. So in consideration that 'Java’s War' is entering the Derby at 15-1 odds today, it’s can be assumed that it’ll have a better start than at Blue Grass Keene and continue it’s ability to outrun his previous competition.
This year’s race has been discussed as not so much a race of the fastest per se but rather the most composed or ‘the come from behind ‘er.’ In previous races the entry requirements allowed some of the quickest sprinter horses to qualify because of admission by aggregated winning totals. But now more emphasis is on the more competitive races that the horses have achieved top finishes in rather than sheer number of wins. Thus a larger number of front runner horses that tend to set an early pace won’t be making their appearances in this year’s derby as they have before. That means that those horses that are strong and hold to the middle of the pack aren’t as tired come the second and final stages of the race when all bets are on the line and then they judiciously move their way to the finish.
Such a situation bodes well for those who have been capable of surpassing large numbers of the pack to win races in previous showings. For example, 'War Emblem' is the only horse since 2000 to have been a winning front runner throughout the race. Since then, six horses have overcome a deficit of at least ten horses behind to proceed up to first for the Churchill finish line.
This assessment is likely to work against the highly talked about horse 'Goldencents' at 5-1 odds. He is no doubt a fast horse who is likely to be near the lead to start the race. But for the entirety of the 1 and a ¼ mile race, the ability to hold a strong position as has been his style on shorter tracks is largely held in question at the Derby. Goldencents is also partially owned by Louisville’s basketball coach Rick Pitino and trained by last year’s derby winning trainer Doug O’Neil. It seems that things might look just a bit too good to be true for a skeptic to put full faith in Goldencent this year.
One horse who is known for a come from way behind style is 'Revolutionary' coming off of three consecutive wins and at 10-1 odds. Also to his favor is his rider, Calvin Borel, who in 2009 rode ‘Mine that Bird’ from last to first to take the prize in soggy conditions. The weather today is wet so these jockey’s will be needing to be on point to maintain visibility in the midst of flying mud and who better to do that than one who’s done it before.
Of the seemingly most likely of Pletcher’s horses to finish at the top is 'Overanalyze' at 15-1 odds. This horse swept it’s first three career races with the Arkansas Derby as it’s most recently win. But it staggered in it’s last performance giving 'Overanalyze' a record of 3-1. That though might just be the one underperformance that the horse needed to rid itself of the pressure and provide some needed rest for a win today.
The fourth of Pletcher’s horse, 'Verrazano' is chalked up at 4-1 odds as an undefeated contender. Yet it’s jockey is coming off of an injury from three and a half weeks ago where he broke a rib and a chipped bone in his wrist. Despite the horse showing an impressive undefeated win streak of 4-0 at it’s current age of 3(as all of the Kentucky Derby horses are required to be of this age to compete), it never ran a race at age two which would make it the first of such a competitor to win the Derby since 'Apollo' who claimed victory in 1882 with no junior racing experience.
The only horse being ridden by a female jockey this year is ‘Mylute’ at a rather expensive 15-1, who has shown to not have what it takes to beat out other big competitors from previous races. No offense to the female of the bunch but a Danica Patrick like first place finish today doesn’t seem all that likely.
Nor does this year seem to stack up well for the distant underdogs according to expert’s opinion. That can rather simply dismiss six of the horses in the running which include Golden Soul(50-1), Giant Finish(50-1), Falling Sky(50-1), Lines of Battle(30-1), Oxbox(30-1), and Frac Daddy(50-1). Of those though it is thought that Falling Sky is likely to take an early lead but then fall off during the race.
Normandy’s Invasion at 12-1 has only had one first place finish in four races and that was in 2012, likely not giving him much hope at winning today.
An impressive horse form New York with four out of five wins is Vyjack at 15-1 odds. He would be a consideration for a best finisher but he’s only raced on his home track of New York’s Aqueduct which poses just one of the concerns for the contender. The only loss from Vyjack was partly from what seemed to be a reparatory ailment when he finished third behind Verrazano earlier this year. After the race, Vyjack was forced to be sent to his Maryland training facility to undergo an Oxygen respiration which certainly is still a concern. But for this gelding who has been described as mysterious and comparable to that of Smarty Jones, it would be dumb to discount his strengths. Plus he and Revolutionary are the only of the top favored horses to have had experience winning in the mud as today is expected to offer.
So pull up a seat, get ready for the high stakes, quick exhilaration of today’s derby. But if you miss it their surely will be replays aplenty to bring yourself up to speed. Happy Derby Day!