Signs of Hope Finally Showing in Syria?
July 11, 2012
Let's face it, Syria's been disastrous. Not so much the country itself, it's people or geography but it's leader and the continuing crises that's lasted since March of last year. Good news does seem to emerging though as loyalties appear to be turning. Grasping the certainty of the exact conditions in the country is challenging. Many have said that the inconclusive media reports are a result of a relatively closed border to journalists as most of the reports on the situation come from neighboring Lebanon or Turkey. Nonetheless, the coverage being conducted remotely of what's believed to be occurring is immense. Most recent news shows a few positive signs amidst the many months of violence. Last Thursday, a high ranking general of the Syrian Army defected, as too did the Iraqi ambassador and moderate numbers of lower ranking generals in recent weeks. The forces of the Syrian Army are comprised of about 50% Alawite Sunni Muslims whose ethnicity is favored by the president Bashar al-Assad who also is of that descent. This portion of the military's 400,000 soldiers has shown to be strongly loyal to the leader yet as has been seen recently, other members who include Sunni, Shiite and minorities have grown intolerant of the murderous repression by the army.
The rebel opposition known as the Free Syrian Army is providing the military support for the the country's protestors, which kicked off during similar movements in the Arab Spring against long term government inequality. The rebels have recently been receiving more signs of defector support. Throughout most of the conflict, this coalition has hardly been a match for the well equipped forces of Assad's army given the sophisticated weaponry, tanks and fighter jets most which has been supplied by Russia for decades. The major cities such as Damascus, Aleppo and Lathia remain controlled by the military although the Free Syrian Army has taken a strong hold in Homs, the third largest city and the origin of protests that were followed by brutal crackdown on it's participants.
The initial violence stemmed within the city square as people rallied for political change and free elections in a political system that has allowed for dictatorial rule since before the power was passed down by al-Bashar's father who held office for 25 years. The population is majority non-Alawite Sunni Muslim, 15% Alawite, some Kurdish, Shiite and Christian. A major part of the social divide in Syria is that of a growing business middle class who reside in cities and a lesser fortunate rural farming population who have taken the toll of the government's misrule. Smaller towns where large support by the rebels have attempted to respond to massive military attacks are an important concern of the nations backing the Free Syrian Army including the US, France, Britain, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey and others.
Turkey more recently has advanced talks as a central component to implementing multilateral or aggressive regime change. Given that Turkey shares a border of about 500 miles along northwestern Syria, they have accepted thousands of fleeing exiles escaping the violence or being forced from their villages. The close border town of Antakya has become a place of strategic importance for supplying Free Syrian Army forces with weapons and tactical advice in taking on al-Bashar's military. CIA officials have arrived there to more closely observe the situation and support the forces by lending instructions for developing reconnaissance intelligence against it's enemy. The US government though has stopped short of supplying military supplies to forces as it favors multilateral efforts with other governments to implement change. A potential exists for larger number of top military and political defections as seen with General Manaf Tlass last week and today's report of the Iraqi ambassador's resignation. As more loyalties break, their likely escape to Antakya should propel the movement.
An incident that augmented the response of the Turkish government recently was when it's military aircraft was gunned down over international borders between near Syria last week. A search for the missing soldier was being conducted and prime Minister Erdogan exclaimed that the country will not sit along the sidelines while it's national interests are at stake.