Overview of the Syrian Conflict
August 25
Will Syria manage to arise from the eighteen months of violence that's wreaked deadly havoc on innocent citizens, exposed a repressive military and galvanized an opposition seeking a cooperative government? Much as did the other Arab Revolts that started across the region, Syria's influx of calamity began when a seemingly minor incident sparking off a popular outpouring of unrest that quickly led to large protests in various parts of the country. In late March a small group of young government dissenters were arrested in the town of Dara'a for spray painting anti government messages on a building. As news disseminated across the town in the midst of powerful protests in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, a movement quickly transpired in Dara'a and in other non-metropolitan towns of Syria.
While the centralized force that was immanent in Cairo Square, Egypt the UAE and Tripoli, Libya, Syria was not as concentrated and the protests began in somewhat different form in towns like Qamishli, Douma, Homs and Hama. The city of Hama was the site of a violent repression by the current president's father Hafez al Bashar in 1982 that killed 10,000 Islamic Brotherhood members. Since the Arab spring protests began, crowds as large as over a hundred thousand encountered military gunfire which regularly resulted in deaths of at least several dozen. For the following five months the protest movement continued in a steadfast fashion where more towns showed resistance to the regime and brutality involving large numbers of arrests occurred as military tactics escalated to the use of armored vehicles and tanks. By September the cost of civilians lives was over 2000.
While many in the country feared government retaliation and chose to avoid protests, in other more activist towns in the south near Jordan and in the North near Lebanon an ideological resilience movement of destitute persisted. The motivation for these protests envisioned the need for their cause to prevail even in the face of incredible opposition. Concern for the momentous situation was that any loosening of protests would embolden al -Bashar's claim to power.
Twelve months ago, reports of a growing armed opposition coordinated amongst aggressive protestors and some military from various cities were accessing firepower to fight back against al-Assads forces. Within a short time approximately 10,000 had defected from the military and about 100 were thought to have joined the emerging Free Syrian Army. Most of the combat was occurring in Dara'a and Homs.
What seemed to be appeasements by al-Assad to retain his power and quell escalating civil unrest, he offered to dismiss the widely unpopular governor of Hom's and replace him in early September. Also a newly imposed prime minister was appointed but the people refused to broker any solution since the common enemy was al-Assad. By mid December estimates for the number of deaths had climbed to 5000. The largest cities of Damascus and Aleppo which had for months been insulated from much of the violence, soon began to experience wave of protests that were no longer victimizing only the depressed, rural towns. Any prior belief in the government's propaganda that attempted to explain the violence as mass gatherings and attacks by foreign terrorists now could undoubtedly be dismissed as the neighborhoods of the two largest cities were also becoming immersed in protests.
Since a cohesive outpouring of support in the anti-Assad movement had overtly come to included the urban demographic directly in front of the president's headquarters, the wide consensus of popular opposition was unobjectionable. So a unanimous calling from the country's mix of ethnic cultures including Sunnis, Shiite, Christians, Kurds and defector Alawhites hoped for a dedicated force of international military assistance to relieve them from the brutality of Assad's forces.
The Arab League of Nations including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Jordan along with Israel, France Turkey and the United States pushed for diplomatic solutions in transitioning power. The beginnings of a civil war seemed to be in place as a growing number of Free Syrian Army soldiers combated with the artillery tanks and explosives of Assad's military. A fracction of the weaponry needed for the rebel armies to stand a chance against the government enemy was hardly being supplied by area nations. The United States pushed for United Nations agreeance on a plan to remove Assad from power but no cooperation was given by Russia or China. During stalled diplomatic talks, frustration in a lack of foreighn interverntion continued on the part of rebel fighters.
The UN organzied a so called "peace keeping" mission consisting of an original 30 observers who were responsible for inspecting the situation and overseeing a temporary cease fire that had been called but largely ignored. One protester commented, "I don't think the number of observers is enough to cover Syria, I think the Arab League should send thousands of observers to all of the hotspots."
As protests raged more concertedly in the capital and in front of the Iranian embassy in a sign of resistance to the notion that Iran's Revolutionary Armed Guard's had previously trained the country's military. Reluctance by Al-Assad to use the military tank force in Damascus as had been the case in the other large towns showed some resolve to not cast an image of ruthlessness upon the middle class and Alawhite citizens who largely inhabit areas surrounding the capital.
In early February China engaged in behind closed door talks with the Syrian president intending to possibly negotiate a political solution despite the lenient position they and Russia held on the crises. Another loose attempt at change where nothing of substance emerged when Assad's government favored a referendum scheduled for February 26th that would create a new constitution and establish a multiparty system. This hardly would ensure any conciliatory solution as power would remain in Assad Alawhite control. The opposition saw through this and rejected anything that didn't secure the departure of Bashar al-Assad and the oppressive forty years of rule between him and his father. Security Council remained stymied from enacting hard-line tactics to force Assad from power because China and Russia objected to it. A six point peace plan was prepared by some UN members stating among other things, the right to peaceful protest and the right to use rebel force in the face of armed confrontation.
By April 20th the death toll amounted to 9000. Rallies often being most heavily attended on Friday's after mosques would inspire chants of all kinds including "Syrian's put your hands up and say, We don't want Bashar." Most often the government response was force that aimed to salvage what weakening holds it still had on the towns in Idlip, Homs, Hama, Dara'a intending not to seize ground to the growing Free Syrian Army.
The largest single incident of violence until that point occurred on the first Saturday of February in Homs. The rallies in the town had been ongoing and the rebels had tightened their protective grip over parts of the town and checkpoints were being established when artillery fire began killing 287 people. The government controlled SANA news agency aired statements claiming that the repression was being used to put down "terrorist armed groups" the same claim made from the government throughout the conflict. A concurrence of harsh military involvement took place among Syrian towns in Mid March. This prompted special United Nations Envoy, Kofi Annan, who had been assigned responsibility in overseeing and negotiating relief, traveled to the country to meet with heads of state. No agreement for peace was made and another brutal attack occurred the day after his departure resulting in the slaying of dozens in Homs.
The Syrian National Council, the main opposition group with headquarters outside of the country expressed urgent assistance from foreign military powers. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton voiced severe concern with other member of the UN Security Council, including China and Russia who remained passive on getting involved to overthrow their main regional ally Bashar al-Assad. Pro-opposition nations in the UN including the US asserted repeatedly that Assad's days were numbered though no noticeable intervention arrived aside from evidence that some supporting nations like Saudi Arabia had offered weapons assistance to the rebel fighters.
By mid April reported deaths had grown to 9000. Refusal to acquiesce to the referendum that Bashar al-Assad had announced which sought to offer parliamentary elections. Yet clamor for the total overthrow and the expression of similar support from Turkey and other countries stymied efforts of the opposition protestors and forces to negotiate with the government.
Late May more large scale assaults in the town of Houla within Homs province raged on. A cease fire set in place by Kofi Annan in late April did little to abate any violence and 250 unarmed peacekeeping observers did nothing to refrain hostility.
May 30, a native Syrian, liberal arts major studying at Syracuse University had taken a leave from school to return home and film a documentary that landed him killed in an assault. In a television interview a month before, he shared ten minutes of eye witness accounts from Homs where his testimony supported a grave danger for all of those occupying the area. His statements drew a comparison between the desperation of the village townspeople versus the residents of Damascus who aren't exposed to as much of the same impinging danger nor express such strong government disgrivance. Many hesitated to proclaiming the situation a civil war despite the blood shed. The government described it as a war against the armed groups which choose terrorism as their way to acheive their objectives and to conspire against the present and future of the Syrian people." The opposition rejected the civil war label, calling it a peaceful opposition movement dedanding a democratic change that took up arms in self defense."
Efforts to help broker a peace plan weakened amidst the presence of the 250 observers who in additon to montioring the situaton inteded to extract evidence and persuade the stop in viloence with other UN officilas and the Assad governmet. However contindued violence and restricted mobility of the commision were hindering and it was ordered for an end to the inspection d and quick passage for those members to return back home. An episode in the town of Al Heffa just east of Latakia on June 10th amounted to nearly a week of exchanging gunfire and heavier miliitary attacks that left a toll of hundreds.
Critics of the Alawhite political power hold a belief that the government dominance is a measure of reversing centuires of fierce descrimination where the minority sect was scorned for four houdred years during Ottaman rule and forced to pay special taxes so the Alawhites sequestered themselves in impovershed mountain redoubts over lookin the Medeterranean.
From the standpoint of the Alawhite ethnic population that represents about 15% of the country's population, a divide exists among the people over partisenship. Many have feared the oppresion of their brethern leader in concern of the outcome for the country's future should if the government be overthrown. Some, even those in the miliatary had shown signs of disloyalty and defection prodominatly from the lower military ranks and were gradually taking up arms against the Syrian National Army. Many calls for the military loyalists to abandon their positions within the regime offerring amnesty should they choose to join the FSA. To the detrimant of the rebles, a demonstrative force throughout the campaign were the Shabiab fighters who are trained al-Assad supporters. Damascus village assaults aimed at Sunnis continued to occur.
The town Al Heffa just east of Latakia on June 10 amounted to nearly a week of exchanging gunfire and heavier meilitary attacks that left a toll of hundreds.
At the same time in Istanbul Turkey, Abdelbaet Sieds, the new leader of the Syrian National Council was named as the revolving appointment of power. He is Kurdish and had been a professor of Arabic and pholosphy and spent seventeen years exiled in Sweden. Most Kurdish opposition groups hadn't taken part in the council because it had not been promised to back a federal government structure for Syria that would give Kurdish areas more measure of autonomy. The respresentatives of the large Kurdish population mainly along the border of Iraq had dismissed an indidcation from al-Bashar early in the confliect that would offer more pronounced territorial rights in exchange for sworn loyalty. Any narrow focused loyalties among members of the Syrian National Council have had success in staying out of the objectives from Council members as the hope is to foster a nonbiased ethnic divide but be open to a democratic polity.
Encampments along Turkish borders had been installed providing tents for refugees and made for organized command centers permitting some opposition forces to work with Turkish and Arab League support. Even US Cia officials had been assigned to operate along the Turkish border to offer some surveliance and logistical instruction to rebel fighters.
Unlike Libya where the US government aided in providing air weapon and missle support, the undeliniated presncene of civilians along with military posed undue risk on coalltion military action. The US military reluctance to retenter another deomestic middle east feud has disheartened the call for stronger military support and further languishing any relief from international UN groups.
The return of smaller uprising in Dara'a where the protest originally errupted fifteen months earlier, called in the use of force with reports of a few dozen deaths were reported in June. Recently elected President Vladimir Putin reassumed his government post in mid May and the mild incidents of opposition to his reelection incited greif by Putin that a worldwide prodemocratic disruption was at play and sparked even less consideration to any intervention for Syria.
China's prmier Hu Jintao however expressed support for a cease fire between both sides that Kofi Annan helped orchestrate in April. Yet the Syrian Foreign Ministry administered by Bashar al-Assad denounced the prescence of seventeen Western diplomats from Europe and the United States after these countries had dismissed the few remaining foreign ambassadors that had remained in Syria. The countries removing it's diplomats were Britain, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Germany, Spain and Switzerland.
Responsibility for the rather unusual suicide bombimg attacks which occurred in Damascus in June were claimed by a group called the Al Nusia Front and orgnaizations linked to Al-queda.
Syrian National Council did accept an offer for greater humanitarian supplies from Nato to be carried in such as food and survival aid.
Some renewed hope of a surge in opposition strength came as a miliatry commandaer Maraf Tlass and apparent confidant of Bashar al-Assad defected the military and fled to the border regions of Turkey.
A series of attacks on the government compounds inside Damasnas on July 15 led to the death of the defense minister, assistant Vice President and the president's brother in law. While meaningful, such a setback isn't a devastating blow to the considerable control still being maintained by the al-Assad forces. The prime Minister who had been in office since February after the quick shuffled reappointment of Parliment resigned from his post and managed to travel to a neighboring country likely with the assistance from the rebel opposition.
The Iraqi ambassador to Syria left his position in recent weeks also. Attacks in early August were carried out on the state run news agency SANA in Damascaus which left operation out of service from destruction for a few days.
A recent release by the UN observer mission provide a detailed account within the last several days alleging supportive evidence of massive international humanitatiran illegality. The commision was given a time frame for completing its investiation through late August but the manuscript was completed as of August 15 and their mission has ended.
Kofi Annan recently stepped down from the appointed over seer of the Syrian situation for the United Nations. Upon leaving, he continued demands for an internal relinquishing of power by the Assad government and implementation of a functioning government. The lingering tendancy among outside nations contines to be advocation for any kind of comprimise that may bring an end to violence but resist direct introvention.
If the violence continues, the United States, while having shown indication of offerring recent weapons support to the FSA, has claimed that the use of chemical weapons would compel our military to get involved. So far no signs of such tactics are evident.
A current number of casualties is approximately 17,000. It seems self prophesizing that the outcome will be changes in government as the resillance of the rebels and their sympathizers contine advocating against the murderous ruler. It should mercifully come soon that some abatement of this long standing agression may take place.